Cost-effectiveness of the second COVID-19 booster vaccination in the United States (preprint)

ABSTRACT Background: On March 29, 2022, the United States (US) authorized the second booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine for individuals aged 50 years and older. To date, the cost-effectiveness of the second booster strategy remains unassessed. Methods: We developed a decision-analytic SEIR-Markov model by five age groups (0-4yrs with 18,827,338 individuals, 5-11yrs with 28,584,443 individuals, 12-17yrs with 26,154,652 individuals, 18-49yrs with 138,769,369 individuals, and 50+yrs with 119,557,943 individuals) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the second COVID-19 booster vaccination (administered 4 months after the first booster dose) over an evaluation period of 180 days in the US, from a healthcare system perspective. Results: Implementing the second booster strategy among individuals aged 50+ years would cost US$807 million but reduce direct medical care costs by $1,128 million, corresponding to a benefit-cost ratio of 1.40. This strategy would also result in a gain of 1,048 QALYs during the 180 days, indicating it was cost-saving. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the probability of being cost-effective with the strategy was 68%. Further, vaccinating individuals aged 18-49 years with the second booster would result in an additional gain of $1,566 million and 2,276 QALYs. Expanding vaccination to individuals aged 12-17 years would result in an additional gain of $15 million and 89 QALYs. Coverage of the first booster vaccination in age groups under 12 was too low to consider the administration of the second booster. If the social interaction between all age groups was severed, vaccination expansion to 18-49yrs and 12-17yrs would no longer be cost-effective. Conclusion: The second booster strategy was likely to be effective and cost-effective in reducing the disease burden of the COVID-19 pandemic. Expanding the second booster strategy to 18-49yrs and 12-17yrs remains cost-effective due to their social contacts with the older age group. Keywords: COVID-19; Second booster; Cost-effective analysis; SEIR-Markov model; Age groups

The Role of Good Governance in the Race for Global Vaccination during the COVID-19 Pandemic (preprint)

Governments have developed and implemented various policies and interventions to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 vaccines are now being produced and distributed globally. This study investigates the role of good governance and government effectiveness indicators in the acquisition and administration of COVID-19 vaccines at the population level.Data on six World Bank good governance indicators for 172 countries for 2019 and machine-learning methods (K-Means Method and Principal Component Analysis) were used to cluster countries based on these indicators and COVID-19 vaccination rates. XGBoost was used to classify countries based on their vaccination status and identify the relative contribution of each governance indicator to the vaccination rollout in each country.Countries with the highest COVID-19 vaccination rates (e.g., Israel, United Arab Emirates, United States) also have higher effective governance indicators. Regulatory Quality is the most important indicator in predicting COVID-19 vaccination status in a country, followed by Voice and Accountability, and Government Effectiveness. Our findings suggest that coordinated global efforts led by the World Health Organization and wealthier nations may be necessary to assist in the supply and distribution of vaccines to those countries that have less effective governance.